Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Odds, AI Picks, Prediction and Fight Analysis (May 4th)

Most computer boxing picks you see online will give you an easy betting pick to make without much explanation or insight into the matchup. With this Canelo vs Munguia bout coming this weekend in Las Vegas, we are going to discuss what will most likely happen on Saturday night, and how to bet on it.
To make the Canelo vs Munguia betting prediction, we will need to break down the available betting lines for the fight, along with studying the styles of both men to figure out how they might clash in the ring.
Continue reading to get all the best picks and predictions for this massive boxing event coming this weekend to celebrate Cinco de Mayo and Mexican boxing as a whole. It’s always a special time when Canelo Alvarez steps in the ring, so the activity at your sportsbook will be high.
Bout Information
SAUL “CANELO” ALVAREZ vs JAIME MUNGUIA |
Location of the Game: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
Date and Time: May 04, 2024 – 11:15 PM ET estimated ring walk |
Reason: Super Middleweight Undisputed Title |
How to watch: DAZN PPV |
AI Betting Picks
ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
OVER/UNDER | Under 10.5 rounds (+200) |
MONEYLINE | Canelo Alvarez (-500) |
This is a very difficult fight to predict because there are many nuances in the sport of boxing, especially with this matchup. Will Canelo be healthy and at his best? Will Munguia be able to show up and not let the bright lights get to him?
With boxing fighters of this caliber, anything can happen inside the ring. Even with Canelo being a massive favorite, Munguia is a very formidable opponent for the great undisputed champion.
Our official Canelo vs. Munguia betting prediction is that Canelo will get his hand raised and simply out-class the younger undefeated fighter. Munguia is hittable, and he has trouble with his pacing throughout 12 rounds.
Will this battle end before 10 rounds?
Canelo is the king of pacing and controlling the fight he’s in. He will set the pace early on with his controlled pressure and stinging body punching, neutralizing Munguia and making it difficult for the 27-year-old to feel confident enough to let his hands go.
The Munguia rounds to win have to be the later rounds, though. Canelo has gassed out in rounds 7-10 in recent fights, but that might be due to injury and being heavier at light heavyweight. If Canelo is healthy, this is going to be a tough fight for Munguia.
If you are looking for the smarted bet to make, take Canelo to win by a decision. But he predicted a KO inside 8 rounds, and that’s hard to not trust when someone like him says he’s going to do that. It’s not often you see him predict a KO like that.
The under 10.5 round total is a great hedging tool to use this weekend. If Canelo or Munguia catches each other early and it turns into a firefight, this one can be a classic fight and it will end inside of 10 rounds.
Canelo vs Munguia Betting Odds
FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
CANELO ALVAREZ | -500 | O 8.5 |
JAIME MUNGUIA | +350 | U 8.5 |
According to the current boxing odds, Canelo is going into this weekend as the sizeable -500 betting favorite over the undefeated fellow Mexican star. You can get Canelo to win by KO at +190 and by decision at -105. For the best value on Canelo, you’re going to have to pick his method of victory.
Munguia is going into the fight of his life as the +350 underdog. With tons of value if you take his power and size into account. He is also at +900 to win by KO and +750 to win by a decision. His money line is plenty valuable, though.
More Canelo vs. Munguia betting lines to think about are the over/under at 10.5 rounds and the fight being +140 to not go to a decision.
Betting Preview
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez
Canelo is the biggest star in boxing today. Being a proud Mexican with a career record of 60-2-2 with 39 career KOs. He has won world championship belts in four weight divisions, currently defending his undisputed belts at super middleweight this weekend. Even as he’s past his prime, he is ranked in the top 5 pound-for-pound at any publication you can find.
Canelo is a 5’8” orthodox fighter with a 70.5” reach. He has been a professional since age 15 and has completed 484 professional rounds going into this weekend’s event. Never being stopped, Canelo KOs 65% of his opponents throughout his career.
Jaime Munguia
Munguia is an undefeated Mexican boxer with a professional record of 43-0. With 34 KO wins under his belt at only the age of 27. Only just now entering his prime, Munguia has won a WBO world title at junior middleweight. And has been a top-ranked middleweight for years, waiting for a chance at Canelo. He earned this fight with a brutal KO of John Ryder in January. A fighter who Canelo couldn’t put away a year ago this weekend.
Munguia is a big kid, coming in at 6’0” with a 72” reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He is the #1 ranked super middleweight contender in the WBC and WBO, and #5 according to The Ring. He has an impressive 79% KO rate through the first 199 professional rounds of his career.
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