Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds, AI Picks & Analysis (April 29, 2024)
The Boston Celtics head to Miami with a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Heat in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. We break down the Celtics vs Heat prediction. betting odds, and key stats you need to know to place your wagers on this high-stakes matchup. Can the Celtics overpower the Heat again, or will Miami bounce back on their home court?
The Boston Celtics bounced back from a slow start to dominate the Miami Heat 104-84. After falling behind in the first quarter, the Celtics exploded for 42 points in the second quarter to take control of the game. Their defense was stifling, holding the Heat to just 32.1% shooting from three-point range and 41.6% shooting overall. Boston cruised to victory, easily covering the 9.5-point spread.
Key Stats:
- Celtics won 104-84, covering the 9.5-point spread.
- Celtics held Heat to 188 points (205-point O/U line).
- Boston has the best record in the East (64-18).
Celtics Look to Keep Rolling
The Celtics boast a league-leading 64-18 record and are heavily favored again tonight. They have a strong overall record as favorites (64-17) and a solid record against the spread as favorites on the road (41-36).
Heat Aim to Bounce Back at Home
The Miami Heat will look to rebound from their blowout loss. While they struggle as underdogs (12-26), they have fared better against the spread in such situations (19-19). Historically, their games average higher scoring totals (217.7 points) than tonight’s line of 203.5 points.
Game Information
| Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat |
| Location of the Game: Kaseya Center, Miami |
| Date and Time: Monday, April 29th 7:30 ET |
| Reason: 2024 NBA Eastern Conference Play-off |
| How to watch: watchlivesports.co |
AI Predictions and Sport Betting AI Picks
These are the NBA Computer Picks for tonight’s NBA Schedule game:
| TEAM | SERIES | AI PICKS | Sport Betting AI PICKS | |||
| Celtics | 2 | 116 | 227 | SPREAD MIA +10.5 |
MONEYLINE BOS -517 |
TOTAL OVER 203.5 |
| Heat | 1 | 111 | ||||
- AI Picks: Boston Celtics 116 – Miami Heat 111
- Sport Betting AI Picks: ATS Heat +10.5 | ML Celtics -517 | OVER 203.5
Celtics vs Heat Predictions and Betting Odds
Next, we have the NBA odds for this NBA Matchup.
Boston Celtics Game Analysis
The Boston Celtics enter this matchup as the NBA’s top three-point shooting team. They’re draining an impressive 16.5 threes per game on a high volume of attempts (42.5 per game) and connecting at a stellar 38% clip. Their efficiency extends beyond the arc, ranking them among the league’s best in two-point field goal percentage (57%).
Individually, according to the NBA player stats Payton Pritchard has been on fire lately, averaging 16.8 points per game over his last five games while shooting a scorching 63.6% from the field. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continue to be offensive forces, averaging 24.3 points and 9.7 rebounds (Tatum) and 24 points and 8 rebounds (Brown) over their last three games respectively. For the season, Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring at 26.9 points per game, while Brown isn’t far behind at 23 points per game.
Defense is another area where the Celtics excel. They rank 5th in the NBA, allowing only 108.8 points per game overall. This dominance is even more pronounced at home, where they hold opponents to a league-leading 4th place finish, allowing just 107.7 points per game.
While opponents average 36.7 three-point attempts per game against Boston (23rd in the NBA), the Celtics do a solid job contesting these shots. For the season, opposing teams connect on just 35.1% of their threes against Boston (15th in the NBA). Over their last five games, this defensive prowess has been even more impressive, limiting opponents to a meager 39.5% success rate from beyond the arc.
Injury Report (as of April 29, 2024):
According to the NBA Injury Report there are no injuries reported.
Miami Heat Game Analysis
Based on the NBA Team Stats, the Miami Heat enter this matchup facing some offensive challenges. They rank a lowly 27th in the NBA in scoring offense, averaging just 110.1 points per game. This inefficiency is even more pronounced at home, where they average a meager 111.5 points per contest. The pace of their game is also slow – the Heat rank 29th in the league with only 95.8 possessions per game.
Adding to their woes are key injuries. Both Jimmy Butler (20.8 points, 5.0 assists, 5.3 rebounds) and Terry Rozier (19.8 points, 5.6 assists) are out tonight. Tyler Herro has been a bright spot recently, averaging 19.8 points and 7.6 assists over his last five games. Bam Adebayo remains a force in the paint, averaging 17.6 points on a stellar 56.1% shooting from the field over the same stretch.
Despite their offensive struggles, the Heat boast a top-ranked defense. They rank 3rd in the NBA, allowing a mere 108.1 points per game overall. This stifling defense has been even more dominant recently, holding opponents to just 103 points per contest over their last five games (4th in the NBA).
Miami excels at limiting free throws, ranking 3rd in the league by allowing only 19.2 attempts per game. They also effectively contest shots, ranking 11th in the NBA with opponents shooting just 46.7% from the field. While they struggle with blocked shots (30th in the NBA at 3.4 per game), the Heat compensate by forcing turnovers at a solid rate (15th in the NBA with 7.5 steals per game).
Injury Report (as of April 29, 2024):
- Jimmy Butler (Knee) – Out
- Josh Richardson (Shoulder) – Out
- Terry Rozier (Neck) – Out
- Delon Wright (Personal) – Probable.
Celtics vs Heat Predictions Head-to-Head
The Celtics have owned the Heat on the road lately, boasting an undefeated 5-0 record in their last five matchups at Miami. In their most recent games as favorites against the Heat, Boston has been dominant with an average scoring margin of victory by 10 points. While their record against the spread is just 2-1 in those games, they’ve shown the ability to cover.
Historically, these matchups have been high-scoring affairs. The average combined score in the last five Celtics-Heat contests is 215 points per game, but with a somewhat inconsistent over/under record of 2-3. Will this trend of high-scoring games continue, or will the defenses tighten up tonight?
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