UFC 304 Welterweight Rematch: Edward vs Muhammad Prediction and AI Picks (Jul 27)
Manchester, England is where the stage is set for this weekend’s UFC 304 event, having the UFC welterweight title on the line between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad in the main event.
This Edwards vs Muhammad bout is a rematch from a few years ago when the fight ended shortly into the second round due to an accidental eye poke from Edwards. Now as the champion, Edwards gets to have a chance to prove he is the best fighter in the world yet again.
Most UFC AI picks don’t give much insight into the predictions made, but we are going to dive deep into this matchup and give an in-depth Edwards vs Muhammad prediction before betting on any fights this weekend.
UFC 304 Main Event Information
| Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad |
| Location of the Fight: Co-op Live, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England |
| Date and Time: July 27, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET Main card starts |
| How to watch: ESPN+ PPV |
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Total |
| Belal Muhammad | +210 | O 4.5 -205 |
| Joe Joyce | -260 | U 4.5 +170 |
The current UFC odds have Edwards heading into his third title defense as the -250 betting favorite. He is at +200 to get the job done inside the distance and +110 to win a decision. More specifically, Edwards is at +275 to win by KO/TKO and +1100 to win by submission.
Muhammad is the +210 underdog as the challenger this weekend heading into his first title fight. He has a lot of value for a win inside the distance at +515 and by decision at +305. Specifically, a TKO/KO win at +800 and submission at +1600 are long shots.
Other odds to consider while making your own Edwards vs Muhammad prediction are the over/under of 4.5 rounds and this fight being favored to go the 5-round distance at -170.
Betting Preview
Leon Edwards:
Madness 🤯@Leon_edwardsmma @RDXSports pic.twitter.com/2gtSxovZ7a
— Fight Disciples (@FightDisciples) July 22, 2024
Edwards is a 22-3 world welterweight champion in the UFC and has 10 finishes on his record. He has defended his world title twice, against elite wrestlers Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. He is on a 13-fight unbeaten streak going into this weekend.
He is a southpaw standing at 6’2” with a 74” reach at 32 years old. Edwards is a patient fighter, averaging only 2.75 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon, along with 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has a modest 70% takedown defense to keep the fight where he wants it to be, according to the official Leon Edwards stats in the UFC.
Belal Muhammad:
All the hard work leads to this moment. 2 days out! Let’s get it! 💪 pic.twitter.com/eQhQnWnmXx
— Belal Muhammad (@bullyb170) July 26, 2024
Muhammad is a 23-3 MMA fighter with 6 finishes under his belt, currently ranked as the #2 welterweight contender in the world. Being a former Titan FC champion, he has collected 3 post-fight bonuses in the UFC and is going into this weekend with a 10-fight unbeaten streak.
Muhammad is a 5’10” orthodox fighter with a 72” reach at 36 years old. In the UFC, he averages 4.55 significant strikes landed per minute and 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is stellar at 93%, making him one of the best wrestlers out of all UFC fighters.
AI Betting Picks
Over/Under – U 4.5 rounds (+160)
Moneyline – Leon Edwards (-250)
A major factor in predicting this fight is understanding the advantage of UFC events in the UK for fighters from that area. The buzz and support they get from the fans all week, especially on fight night, is special.
But even if they fought in an empty warehouse, the official Edwards vs Muhammad prediction is that Edwards gets his hand raised in a dominant fashion. He is on a different level right now at this stage of his career–in his prime, building a great team around himself, and the championship confidence.
Muhammad is going to show up in great condition and with a gameplan he is confident in, but that won’t be enough. Edwards’ fight IQ, footwork, takedown defense, and sharp striking skills will be levels above Muhammad.
If Muhammad tries using his usual pressure and walks Edwards down all over the cage, the champion is going to walk him onto something big and end the fight. If Muhammad gets trigger-shy and doesn’t lead with lots of pressure, it’s going to be a long and frustrating night for him.
It’s tough to imagine any Belal Muhammad rounds on Saturday night, the skills just don’t match up well. A lot of fans who don’t understand the level of skill in a lot of UFC fighters and how great they are don’t see how great of a champion Edwards is.
Edwards doesn’t get the credit he deserves with his power, speed, and the way he has never accepted a takedown; even against some of the best wrestlers in welterweight history. This is going to be a one-sided performance and we are banking on a finish in the first 4.5 rounds for the champion in front of a rowdy Manchester crowd.
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