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Madison Square Garden will be the venue this weekend for UFC 295 in yet another historic event for one of the most special fight night venues in the world. In the co-main event, heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall are meeting in the octagon to fight for the interim heavyweight title after Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic were scrapped from the card due to Jones’ injury. This injury moved a lot to the Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction as one to follow.
The Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction brings some interesting questions to answer. Will Aspinall have what it takes to get through the devastating power of Pavlovich? Or will the two weeks’ notice not be enough against the Russian who was preparing to be the backup for the Jones vs. Miocic main event originally scheduled for this event?
Let’s break this fight down by looking at the Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction and betting lines available this weekend, checking out the statistics, and studying the film to see how these two compare stylistically. We will give you the Pavlovich vs. Aspinall prediction and anything else you need to know about UFC events and betting on them.
|SERGEI PAVLOVICH vs TOM ASPINALL
|Location of the Game: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York, United States
|Date and Time: Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 10 PM ET main card start
|Reason: Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship Bout
|How to watch: ESPN+ PPV
Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction Betting Odds
In the Pavlovich vs Aspinall Prediction fight, the Russian is the slight underdog at most sportsbooks with odds around -103. Don’t be surprised if this fight ends up closing at EVEN odds by the time Saturday comes around. Pavlovich is +115 to win by TKO/KO; so if you are leaning towards him, that’s the pick to make.
The Tom Aspinall odds are around -120 right now, but this might be an even -115 for both fighters by Saturday. Aspinall is also +190 to win by TKO/KO and -115 to win inside the distance. This means this bout is very unlikely to go the full 25 minutes to a decision. You can bet on this fight going to a decision at a whopping +1000. These lines are very important to know while making a Pavlovich vs. Aspinall prediction this weekend.
Sergei Pavlovich’s record is 18-1, and he is currently on a 6-fight winning streak since dropping his UFC debut to the great Alistair Overeem in 2018. All 6 of those wins were via KO in the first round.
According to the statistics, Pavlovich has the second most significant strike landed per minute in UFC history (8.72) and the most knockdowns per 15 minutes in UFC history (6.31). The 6’3” southpaw absorbed 4.33 significant strikes per minute as well, while also holding a solid 75% takedown defense in the octagon.
Aspinall is a professional MMA fighter with a record of 13-3 with 10 KOs and 3 submissions. He has a 6-1 record in the UFC, just like Pavlovich, with his only loss coming from blowing out his knee in the summer of 2022 against Curtis Blaydes after landing a heavy leg kick in the opening seconds.
The statistics show Aspinall has the lowest average fight time (2:19) in the UFC, with Pavlovich coming in second in that category. His massive 6’5” frame adds power and strength to his highly skilled arsenal of attacks. He averages 7.65 significant strikes landed and only 2.90 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Aspinall even averages 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% rate. He has arguably the most dominant stats in the entire UFC for how long he’s been in the promotion.
AI Betting Picks
|AI BETTING PICKS
|OVER 1.5 Rounds (+175)
|Tom Aspinall (-119)
After scanning the UFC odds for this bout and breaking down these two great UFC fighters, this fight is literally a coin flip. Heavyweight MMA is an even different sport than MMA in general. One touch from one of these guys can put anyone to sleep in the octagon at any moment.
The reasoning behind this Pavlovich vs. Aspinall prediction is that Aspinall’s skills are arguably the most impressive in the whole division. He moves like a welterweight, hits like a truck, and has elite grappling abilities. The best part is that he hasn’t even needed to show most of his skills in a fight–he’s just too dominant.
Even if Aspinall doesn’t start out on fire and lighting Pavlovich up as we expect, he will be able to use plenty of tools to weather the storm from Pavlovich and figure out a different way to get his hand raised. There is a lot of confidence in this UFC pick, but remember that anything can happen in heavyweight MMA.