Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Odds, AI Picks, and AI Prediction
There may have been a changing of the guard at the 2024 Australian Open as 22-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner took down Novak Djokovic in dominant fashion in the semi-finals overnight Friday. Sinner, who has now won three of his last four matches against Djokovic, nearly won the match in straight sets and has only dropped one set heading into the final against Daniil Medvedev, who is into his third Aussie Open final. Medvedev beat Alexander Zverev in five sets, overcoming a 2-0 set deficit for the second time in the tournament.
Here’s a look at the recent Sinner results and Medvedev stats, along with a preview of the Australian Open finals picks.
Match Information
JANNIK SINNER vs DANIIL MEDVEDEV |
Location of the Game: Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia |
Date and Time: Sunday, January 28 at 3:30 a.m. ET |
Reason: 2024 Australian Open ATP Finals |
How to watch: ESPN and TSN (Canada) |
AI Betting Picks
ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
OVER/UNDER | Over 38 (-120) |
MONEYLINE | Jannik Sinner (-285) |
Betting the favorite isn’t always fun, but it’s clearly the right play here as Sinner has looked much more dominant and confident than Medvedev, who has had to scratch and claw to get where he is. It’s true that Sinner might not be as battle tested as Medvedev and we haven’t seen how he would deal with adversity, but he’s a player who has been on the cusp of greatness for the last year and it appears his time is now.
Australian Open Finals Odds
FIGHTER | HANDICAP | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
JANNIK SINNER | -4.5 | -285 | O 38 |
DANIIL MEDVEDEV | +4.5 | +225 | U 38 |
Sinner is a -285 moneyline favorite in Australian Open computer picks and has a -4.5 (-110) match handicap. The games total is 38, with over and under odds both at -120. Medvedev is a +225 underdog in the Australian Open finals picks.
Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Betting Preview
Medvedev into Third Australian Open Final
Medvedev has a chance to win his first Australian Open in three tries. The former U.S. Open winner lost in the final of the 2022 and 2021 Australian Open to Rafael Nadal and Djokovic. He’ll be happy not to see either of those players in this year’s Australian Open final, although he’s playing an opponent with arguably better Australian Open player stats than anyone in recent history.
Sinner has needed just 14 hours to reach the Australian Open finals picks, whereas Medvedev has been on court more than 20 hours, including more than five hours in his come-from-behind 5-7, 3-6, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (5), 6-3 victory over Zverev. He also overcame a 2-0 set deficit against Emil Ruusuvuori earlier in the draw and needed five sets to beat Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-finals. It has been exhausting watching his matches, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll have enough left in the tank to beat one of the hottest players in the sport on Sunday.
Medvedev is 6-3 in nine career matches against Sinner, but has lost their last three head-to-head meetings.
Sinner Chasing First Grand Slam Title
Sinner’s rise to the finals of the Australian Open has been fun to watch. He began playing at a higher level late into last season, winning in China and then leading Italy to the Davis Cup and has carried that momentum into his Australian Open matchups. He hadn’t lost a single set before his semi-final win 6-1, 6-2, 6-7 (6), 6-3 over Djokovic. He’s the first player to beat Djokovic 6-1 in a set in the Australian Open in 10 years.
Sinner has also won his last three matches against Medvedev. Two of those matches went to three sets, however, and they played four tiebreaks in those three matches. They’re evenly matched, but Sinner has the huge advantage of being on court six hours fewer than Medvedev. His victory over Djokovic should only give him additional confidence heading into Sunday’s final.
Sinner is 34-7 on outdoor hard courts going back to last season and Medvedev is 44-8. They’re 1-1 against each other on outdoor hard courts.
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