KO or Decision? Aspinall vs Blaydes Prediction at UFC 304 (Jul 27)

One of the most exciting UFC events of the year is coming this weekend in Manchester, England. The UK events are always the most electric with rowdy fans making these fights a spectacle.
This co-main event bout between Manchester’s own Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes for the interim heavyweight title will be the people’s main event. This is an explosive matchup between two of the biggest and best fighters in the world.
Read more for a closer look at how these UFC AI picks are made and for the official Aspinall vs Blaydes prediction before you make any UFC bets this weekend. We will break down the betting lines and the stylistic matchup in the octagon set for Saturday night.
Aspinall vs Blaydes Information
Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes |
Location of the Fight: Co-op Live, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England |
Date and Time: July 27, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET Main card starts |
How to watch: ESPN+ PPV |
Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes Odds
Fighter | Moneyline | Total |
Curtis Blaydes | +250 | O 1.5 +135 |
Tom Aspinall | -350 | U 1.5 -165 |
According to the available UFC odds, Aspinall is going into this interim title defense as the sizeable -350 betting favorite. You can also find him at -350 to win inside the distance and +900 to win the 5-round decision.
Blaydes is coming in as the +285 underdog challenger looking to wrap UFC gold around his waist for the first time. He is at +385 to win inside the distance and +975 to win by a decision.
Other prop bets to look for before making an Aspinall vs Blaydes prediction include: this fight being favored to end inside the distance at -1000, or +600 to make the final horn. Also, the over/under is set at just 1.5 rounds–with the under being favored at -165.
Betting Preview
Tom Aspinall:
Tom Aspinall oblique kicking his opponent’s rear knee while they’re kicking pic.twitter.com/ATvxBlhkKB
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) July 20, 2023
Aspinall is the current UFC interim heavyweight champion as he waits for Jon Jones to defend the undisputed belt. He is the #11 fighter in the world pound-for-pound in the UFC and is currently on a two-fight winning streak since suffering a knee injury against, who else, Curtis Blaydes.
Aspinall is a massive athlete at 6’5” with a 78” reach at 31 years of age. According to Tom Aspinall’s stats, he has a ridiculous striking ratio at 7.72 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.77 per minute–with both accuracy and defense at 66%. He also averages 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, making him an absolute offense juggernaut in the octagon, with an average fight time of just 2:10.
Curtis Blaydes:
#OnThisDay in 2023, Tom Aspinall rebounded from his devastating injury loss to Curtis Blaydes in 2022, with a first round knockout of Marcin Tybura. 🔥
He is set to rematch Curtis Blaydes this weekend at #UFC304, in an Interim title defense. 🏆#MMA #UFC pic.twitter.com/G3o23Ic2NJ
— MMA Frenzy (@mma_frenzy) July 22, 2024
Blaydes is an 18-4 American heavyweight contender with 3 TKO/KO wins, who is challenging for his first world title in the UFC. He was a JUCO national champion in college wrestling, and now is currently 13-4 in the UFC with his only losses coming to the most prolific KO artists in heavyweight history.
Blaydes is a 6’4” wrestler with an 80” reach, matching the size and stature of Aspinall. He averages 3.53 significant strikes landed and only 1.83 absorbed per minute in the octagon. His wrestling is where he does best, averaging 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes with zero submissions.
AI Betting Picks
Over/Under – U 1.5 rounds (-165)
Moneyline – Tom Aspinall (-350)
This Aspinall vs Blaydes bout is going to have fans all over the world on their feet from the moment they touch gloves. These are two massive athletes with the power to KO each other with one punch, ending the fight in seconds.
Many casual UFC fans and sports bettors don’t know much about Aspinall before his interim title win last November against Pavlovich. After following him closely for years, the truth is that he is arguably the most talented fighter on the roster.
The athleticism for his size is second to none. Aspinall moves so well around the octagon and understands the distance control and setups to be a world-class boxer, but he also has a life-long skill set in grappling. His father was one of the first black belts in BJJ in the UK and has been training him since he was a kid.
Aspinall is so dangerous that he hasn’t even gotten the chance to show off all his skills because the fight is over in a minute or two.
As for the challenger, the “Curtis Blaydes rounds” will be round 3-5 if he can draw this fight out that long. Those are uncharted waters for Aspinall and Blaydes has that wrestler gas tank and can grind out takedowns for 25 minutes.
It’s going to be very difficult for anybody on the planet to compete with Aspinall in that first round. The speed, power, and technical skill are as elite as it gets in MMA. Both of these UFC fighters deserve to be a champion and we will see a great fight on Saturday.
The official Apsinall vs. Blaydes prediction is that Aspinall wins by KO in the first round. And that’s the prediction for Aspinall against anybody he faces right now–he’s that good.
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