Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval Odds, AI Picks, and AI Prediction

UFC events are back in Mexico after a long time away since the pandemic, starting this weekend. The headliner bout for this weekend’s event is between top flyweights Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. Both are coming off championship losses and looking to keep their names in the title picture.
Let’s take a closer look at this Moreno vs. Royval bout and talk about how this fight might play out on Saturday night. We will start with the Moreno vs. Royval odds available right now, and then break down the fighting styles of both men.
UFC fighters at this level are coin flips to bet on when they fight each other, but there might be some factors in this matchup that the usual UFC AI picks won’t catch.
Bout Information
BRANDON ROMERO vs BRANDON ROYVAL |
Location of the Game: Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Mexico |
Date and Time: February 24, 2024 – 10 PM ET main card start |
Reason: UFC Flyweight Main Event Bout |
How to watch: ESPN+ |
AI Betting Picks
ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
OVER/UNDER | Under 3.5 rounds (+115) |
MONEYLINE | Brandon Moreno (-290) |
Even though the Moreno vs. Royval odds show that Moreno is a big favorite, don’t let those numbers fool you. There have been plenty of underdogs as big, or even bigger than Royval who have won fights at the highest level over the last couple of years–especially at lower weights.
On a technical level, Moreno is the superior mixed martial artist. He’s defensively responsible at any range, has increasingly solid wrestling, and has very good Jiu-Jitsu skills allowing him to create fun scrambles on the ground and end up in a very dominant position.
Royval is still dangerous. He has long legs that he uses to kick hard at a long distance, using those to create pressure and maybe even some chaos for his opponents. It’s tough to make great decisions when someone is pressuring you with jumping switch kicks and heavy round kicks.
With Royval taking this fight on short notice and not having a full training camp, along with not too much time to recover from going 5-round with Pantoja in December, all signs point to Moreno with this pick.
This is also a great opportunity with this over/under at 3.5 rounds. This feels like a trap by oddsmakers, but it feels like Royval will know he might not be able to fight at the pace he needs to for 25 minutes, so he will go for a finish early on. This fight will be fast-paced from the start and will end within the first three rounds.
Romero vs Royval Odds
FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
BRANDON ROMERO | -280 | O 3.5 |
BRANDON ROYVAL | +220 | U 3.5 |
The Moreno vs. Royval odds have Moreno coming in as the big -280 betting favorite over the recent title challenger. You can also get Moreno winning inside the distance at +135. He’s at +450 to win by TKO/KO and +320 to win by submission.
Royval is coming in as the +220 underdog this weekend, with odds at +275 to win inside the distance. You can bet on him to win by TKO/KO at +400 and submission at +775.
Other UFC odds to think about should include this fight being favored to end inside the distance at -160, along with the over/under being set at 3.5 rounds.
Betting Preview
Brandon Moreno
Moreno is a 21-7-2 professional mixed martial artist set to headline in his home country of Mexico this weekend. Moreno KOs about 17% of his opponents so far in his career, adding 11 submissions as well. He is a former two-time UFC flyweight champion and is currently the #1 UFC flyweight contender.
Moreno is a 5’7” orthodox fighter with slick boxing and a very high-level grappling skillset, with a reach listed at 70”. In the octagon, Moreno averages 3.80 significant strikes landed and 3.40 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He adds a solid 56% striking defense and a 64% takedown defense as well. Along with those numbers, Moreno also lands about 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes of action.
Brandon Royval
Royval is an American UFC contender with a professional MMA record of 15-7 with 4 wins by way of TKO/KO and 9 submissions. He is a former LFA flyweight champion, like his opponent this weekend, and is currently the #3 UFC flyweight contender. Royval’s record might not suggest how dangerous he is at the highest level, but all of his UFC losses have come from the last two champions–including Moreno.
Royval averages the same amount of significant strikes landed per minute as his opponent at 3.80, along with 3.05 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Since he is comfortable and dangerous off of his back, Royval holds only a 40% takedown defense and only lands 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes.
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