FIGHT NIGHT: Justin Tafa vs Karl Williams Odds, AI Picks, and Betting Prediction
UFC events with the amount of closely matched fights as this upcoming UFC on ESPN card are very difficult to bet on. Every fight could be looked at as a coin flip, with only two bouts coming in with a more than -200 betting favorite.
One of the most difficult matchups to predict is this heavyweight bout between Justin Tafa and Karl Williams. The heavyweight division is very unpredictable when you have this level of danger in the octagon together.
Let’s take a closer look at this Tafa vs. Williams bout and discuss how this might play out after previewing the Tafa vs. Williams odds, along with studying the tape these two have put out there recently in the UFC.
Bout Information
| JUSTIN TAFA vs KARL WILLIAMS |
| Location of the Game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| Date and Time: March 23, 2024 – 10 PM ET main card starts |
| Reason: (UFC Heavyweight Co-Main Event bout |
| How to watch: ESPN+ |
AI Betting Picks
| ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
| OVER/UNDER | Over 1.5 rounds (+170) |
| MONEYLINE | Karl Williams (-180) |
UFC fighters in the heavyweight division are competing in a different sport than the rest of the company. A guy like Justin Tafa can be very dangerous and he looks like he doesn’t train at all if you look at him outside of the sport.
After a closer look at this matchup and breaking down the Tafa vs Williams odds, our official prediction is that Williams will win on Saturday night. This is more in-depth than the usual UFC AI picks you see on the internet.
He will be able to be more active than Tafa and get takedowns where he will control the fight on the ground, being dangerous with elbows and other ground-and-pound. Tafa is a tough guy and has seemingly gotten in better shape since the beginning of his career, but Williams is too good of an athlete.
Athleticism might not show as much when both athletes are this size and when Tafa has legit one-punch KO power, but the wrestling is such a clear path for Williams. He has won his fights lately by committing to the takedowns and moving his feet–two things a lot of heavyweights struggle with.
The technique and top pressure of Williams in the wrestling department are going to be too much for Tafa, who usually depends on a strong base and good instincts to keep it off the ground. It’s going to be interesting to see if he knows any good Jiu-Jitsu to get back on the feed.
Battle vs Loosa Prediction Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
| JUSTIN TAFA | +150 | O 1.5 |
| KARL WILLIAMS | -180 | U 1.5 |
Tafa is going into this weekend as the +150 underdog. You can bet on him to win by KO/TKO at +185, though. This means that the oddsmakers believe if he wins, he will most likely win by KO.
You can get Williams at -180 as the betting favorite going into the biggest fight of his UFC career up to this point. He’s +130 to win inside the distance and +200 to win a decision.
Some other interesting Tafa vs. Williams odds are the over/under of 1.5 rounds and this fight being favored to end inside the distance at -240.
Betting Preview
Justin Tafa
Tafa is an Australian fighter with a record in professional MMA of 7-3 with all 7 wins coming by KO. He’s a former rugby player who stepped away from the sport due to injuries. He went on to be Australian Xtreme Fighting Championship’s heavyweight champion. Also, he earned two post-fight bonuses in the UFC so far. Also, he is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
He is a 6’0” southpaw with a 74” reach at the age of 30. Justin Tafa’s stats include averages of 5.13 significant strikes landed and 5.93 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the UFC. He has zero takedowns in his career and has a perfect 100% takedown defense.
Karl Williams
Williams is a 9-1 professional mixed martial artist from St. Thomas. Karl Williams’ record also includes 3 TKO/KO wins and one submission loss. The 34-year-old former college football player turned professional in 2021 after going 5-1 as an amateur.
Williams is a 6’3” orthodox wrestler with a 79” reach. He averages just 2.93 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing an average of only 1.80. He adds an impressive 4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 100% takedown defense to his resume as well.
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