Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev Odds, AI Picks, and AI Prediction
With another UFC event from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas coming up this weekend, let’s talk turn our attention to the main event bout. Longtime ranked heavyweight contender Jairzinho Rozenstruik is welcoming undefeated prospect Shamil Gaziev into the top of the division.
We will discuss the numbers behind this matchup, along with what both of these guys bring to the table from a technical standpoint. The official Rozenstruik vs Gaziev prediction will come after carefully weighing all the factors going into this main event bout.
The usual UFC AI picks tend to only worry about the numbers involved in the matchup on paper, but there’s much more that goes into picking a fight between two UFC fighters at this level, especially in the heavyweight division.
Bout Information
| JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK vs SHAMIL GAZIEV |
| Location of the Game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| Date and Time: FMarch 02, 2024 – 4 PM ET Main Card start |
| Reason: UFC heavyweight main event bout |
| How to watch: ESPN+ |
AI Betting Picks
| ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
| OVER/UNDER | Over 1.5 rounds (+145) |
| MONEYLINE | Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+1405) |
After breaking down this Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev bout set to headline this weekend’s event, it proves that heavyweight MMA at this level is basically an entirely different sport. You should look at this as a coin-flip.
While watching both of these guys fight at a high level, the Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev prediction points to Rozenstruik. He has the experience against some of the most dangerous men on the planet, along with the elite striking ability to land a devastating shot on Gaziev’s chin.
Gaziev is a massive athlete who is as dangerous as anyone, but he hasn’t wowed us with any particular skill set or shown the ability to dominate an elite fighter. He has gotten wobbled, he has gassed out, and he has gotten outgrappled. The heart and determination of Gaziev might be his best asset.
Since the fight starts with both fighters standing up each round, we are taking Rozenstruik to be able to land the strikes he needs as Gaziev comes into range and tries to close the distance. Gaziev also has the confidence to throw punches in combination, which is a dangerous idea against someone with the timing and accuracy of Rozenstruik.
There might be wrestling early on, that’s why the o1.5 round pick sounds like the best to make.
Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Prediction Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
| JAIRZIHO ROZENSTRUIK | +140 | O 1.5 |
| SHAMIL GAZIEV | -170 | U 1.5 |
Starting with the betting lines, Rozenstruik is coming in as the +140 underdog this weekend. He is at +125 odds to win inside the distance, and +125 to win via KO/TKO as well. These lines are basically saying that oddsmakers think the only method of victory that Rozenstruik has is a KO.
Gaziev is coming into this weekend as the -170 betting favorite over the UFC veteran. You can get him to win inside the distance at -125, by KO at +175, and by submission at +275. These are interesting lines to consider while making a Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev prediction.
Other important UFC odds to take a look at include the over/under being set at only 1.5 rounds–with the ‘under’ favored at -175, along with this fight being favored to end inside the 25-minute limit at -1400. It’s hard to even imagine these two being able to survive 25 minutes with each other.
Betting Preview
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a 13-5 professional mixed martial artist from Suriname with 12 wins by TKO/KO under his belt at the age of 35. Rozenstruik’s record in kickboxing before turning to MMA is 76-8-1 with 64 KOs; collecting multiple championship titles in the sport.
Rozenstruik is a 6’2” orthodox striker with a 78” reach and usually weighing in at around 242 lbs. He averages only 2.81 significant strikes landed per minute, but also averages a knockdown every 46 strikes. He also holds a solid 73% takedown defense, which is solid for someone who hasn’t been wrestling for very long.
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev is the first UFC fighter representing the country of Bahrain. An accomplishment he earned after winning a fight against former CFFC champion Greg Velasco on Dana White’s Contender Series. Gaziev KOs 8 out of 12 opponents on his path to a 12-0 record.
Gaziev is a massive Dagestan-born athlete with a height of 6’4” and a reach of 78”, weighing in at the heavyweight limit in his UFC debut in 2023. This is only his second UFC fight, showing he’s on the same path that the UFC has given many of their older prospects with reputations outside of the promotion. Including his DWCS bout, he averages 6.19 significant strikes landed to only 0.93 absorbed per minute.
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