UFC Fight Night: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez Odds, AI Picks, and Prediction (April 27th)
UFC AI picks usually take basic analytics and give sports bettors a pick, without much explanation. When betting on UFC fighters at this level, many more factors determine how a fight will play out.
This weekend, the main event of the UFC Fight Night card will be this flyweight matchup between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez. Perez is stepping in on short notice after Manel Kape dropped out due to injury.
Continue reading for an official Nicolau vs Perez prediction after breaking down this main event bout in multiple ways. Will Perez get back on track after an inactive last few years and three losses in a row? Or will Nicolau cement his place to get a title shot soon?
Bout Information
| MATHEUS NICOLAU vs ALEX PEREZ |
| Location of the Game: UFC APEX Center, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States |
| Date and Time: April 27, 2024 – 7 PM ET Main card starts |
| Reason: UFC Fight Night Main Event bout |
| How to watch: ESPN+ |
AI Betting Picks
| ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
| OVER/UNDER | Over 4.5 rounds (+105) |
| MONEYLINE | Matheus Nicolau (-180) |
This Nicolau vs Perez prediction was more clear than the odds might have suggested. We are going with Nicolau to get his hand raised on Saturday night. There are many reasons why this is the pick to make and here’s why:
First, both of these guys are grapplers and Nicolau is seemingly the better one. The only Alex Perez submissions he needs to worry about is a front choke like the Brabo or Anaconda. Those are what Perez is most comfortable with and it’s just an easy game plan to be careful in that front headlock position.
Another thing you need to notice is that the only losses in Nicolau’s career have been to explosive, dynamic strikers who simply caught him with something wild. The most recent being a title eliminator bout against Brandon Royval via knee and elbows in the first round.
Nicolau has almost a boxing-style stance, heavy on the front foot, with explosive overhands and a good jab he fights behind to close the distance. He will frustrate his opponent with his patience and great movement around the octagon.
The best money will be on this fight going the distance at plus odds. These two can finish each other, but it’s tough not to bet against a finish with these odds for a flyweight bout. The pacing will be different over 5 rounds and the chances for explosive exchanges might be slim.
Nicolau vs Perez Prediction Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
| MATHEUS NICOLAU | -180 | O 4.5 |
| ALEX PEREZ | +150 | U 4.5 |
According to UFC odds, Nicolau is going into this weekend as the -180 betting favorite over Perez. You can get Nicolau to win inside the distance at +150, including by TKO/KO at +500 and submission at +250.
Perez is currently a +150 underdog for this weekend’s main event. He is also at +235 odds to win inside the distance, including +325 by TKO/KO and +900 by submission. These lines are important to anyone making a Nicolau vs. Perez prediction that they want to bet on this weekend.
This Nicolau vs. Perez bout is favored to end inside the distance at -160 right now. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with the under currently at -160. This means the oddsmakers expect someone to get the finish, even though these are two flyweights who don’t necessarily finish a ton of fights.
Betting Preview
Matheus Nicolau
Nicolau is a 19-3-1 professional mixed martial artist who is currently ranked as the #5 flyweight contender in the UFC. He is coming off his first loss since 2018 as well. Mattheus Nicolau KO’d only one opponent since 2014, but he is an elite grappler with two submissions in the UFC.
The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is a 5’6” orthodox striker with a 66” reach. In the UFC, Nicolau averages 3.66 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing an average of 3.14. He adds 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes to his offensive arsenal, along with a stingy 93% takedown defense.
Alex Perez
Perez is a 24-8 MMA fighter with 5 TKO/KO wins and 7 submissions. The former Tachi Palace flyweight champion earned his UFC contract in 2017 in the early days of Dana White’s Contender Series. He started his UFC career going 6-1 with his only loss to the great Joseph Benavidez.
Perez is a 5’6” orthodox fighter with a 65” reach. He averages 4.12 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon, as well as 3.14 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Being a heavy wrestler, Perez completes 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and has a very good 82% takedown defense.
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