Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista Odds, AI Picks, and AI Prediction

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In the first UFC event of the 2024 schedule this weekend, we have an awesome bantamweight matchup set to take place at the UFC APEX. Rising prospect Mario Bautista will look to break into the top 15 of the division as he takes on the dangerous Ricky Simon. 

These are two of the best bantamweights in the world who are looking to step into the spotlight with a big performance this weekend, lost in the mix of an overly-stacked division. 

Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and make a Simon vs Bautista prediction so you can use that advice to make your own UFC picks on this weekend’s betting slate. There are a lot of factors in this matchup of elite soon-to-be contenders.

Game Information 

RICKY SIMON vs MARIO BAUTISTA

Location of the Game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United State

Date and Time: January 13, 2024 – 7 PM ET main card start

Reason: UFC Friday Night Bantamweight Bout

How to watch: ESPN+

AI Betting Picks

ODDS	AI BETTING PICKS
OVER/UNDER	Under 2.5 rounds (+1240)
MONEYLINE	Mario Bautista (+148)

After the most recent Ricky Simon results in the octagon against Song Yadong, this is a massive fight for him. Bautista supposed to have his big step up last August but had to fight Blackshear on short notice. 

Even though Bautista hasn’t fought anyone at Simon’s level yet, the official Simon vs. Bautista prediction is that Bautista gets the job done. We are even hedging that bet with the under 2.5 rounds line because these two are going to create a finish, whether or not it’s Bautista with his hand raised. 

It’s almost a bummer that two UFC fighters of this level will have to meet on a small card like this before they are inevitably at the top of the division, but the positive side is that we get to watch and bet on two elite athletes in their athletic primes, competing to have a great start to a potential 2024 title run. 

The reasoning behind this pick is the all-around skill that Bautista has. He is the more dynamic fighter; both on the ground and on the feet. He is the better striker for sure, but he can also create scrambles and keep Simon in constant danger of submission during those scrambles on the ground. He’s prepared for Simon and will put on a better performance than he did in August at UFC 292. 

Simon vs Bautista Prediction Odds

FIGHTER	MONEYLINE	OVER/UNDER
RICKY SIMON	-180	O 2.5
MARIO BAUTISTA	+150	U 2.5

According to the UFC odds for this Simon vs. Bautista bout, Simon is coming in as the slight -173 betting favorite over the +148 Bautista. The only other line available is the over/under at 2.5 rounds, with the over favored at -170. This means that oddsmakers believe these two will fight for most, if not all, of the 15 minutes.

The Simon vs Bautista prediction can be done without seeing the betting lines for the fight, but the betting lines can make or break a betting pick. Fortunately for you, there’s a lot of value in both men this weekend.

Betting Preview

Ricky Simon

Simon is a professional MMA fighter with a record of 20-4 with 6 TKO/KO victories and 4 submission victories in his career. He is the former LFA bantamweight champion and he has won three post-fight bonuses in the UFC so far. He’s at 5’6” with a 69” reach, mainly fighting out of the orthodox stance.

Simon averages 3.01 significant strikes landed per minute and 3.23 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He lands at a 44% rate and successfully defends strikes at a 62% rate. Simon’s true strength is his grappling. He averages an impressive 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon and has a 75% takedown defense–making him one of the best wrestlers in the division. 

Mario Bautista

Bautista is a professional MMA fighter with a record of 13-2 with 3 TKO/KO victories and 6 submission wins so far. He has collected two performance bonuses from the UFC so far in his career. He is at 5’9” with a 69” reach, fighting out of switch stances. 

After limited Mario Bautista rounds in the octagon so far in his career, he averages an impressive 5.32 significant strikes landed and 4.20 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He adds to that high-powered offensive attack with an average of 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.3 submissions. 

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