Barboza vs Murphy Prediction: Can “Junior” KO “The Irish Dragon”?
The UFC event this weekend will be headlined by featherweights Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy battling in the octagon. This Barboza vs Murphy prediction highlights a great matchup between a UFC veteran and an undefeated rising contender.
Most UFC AI picks give you a bet to make without much information and insight into what will most likely happen in the octagon and why. We are going to go over the betting lines, the resumes and statistics of both fighters and how the styles of both fighters will clash in the octagon on Saturday evening.
Continue reading for a closer look at this featherweight fight and the official Barboza vs Murphy prediction before you decide on any bets this weekend.
Barboza vs Murphy Information
| Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy |
| Location of the Fight: UFC Apex. Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Date and Time: Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 4 PM ET Main card starts |
| How to watch: watchlivesports.co |
Barboza vs Murphy Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | -145 | O 3.5 -150 |
| Edson Barboza | +115 | U 3.5 +120 |
According to UFC odds, Barboza is going into the weekend as a +115 underdog. You can bet on him to win inside the distance at +210 and at +375 to win a decision. He is currently at +235 to win by TKO/KO and +2200 to win by a submission.
Murphy is traveling across the pond as the -145 betting favorite over the UFC legend. He is currently at +185 to win a decision and +210 to win inside the distance. Interestingly, Murphy is less likely to win by TKO/KO than Barboza at +275, according to oddsmakers.
Other Barboza vs Murphy prediction lines include the over/under at 3.5 or 4.5 rounds at most major sportsbooks (we will discuss what line to take) and this bout being favored to end inside the distance at -140.
Barboza vs Murphy Betting Preview
Edson Barboza:
Barboza is a 24-11 UFC featherweight from Brazil who is currently ranked as the #12 contender in the world. He is a world-class kickboxer who has been fighting in the UFC since 2010. He has earned 12 post-fight bonuses in the company and is tied with Dustin Poirier with the most Fight of the Night awards in UFC history (9). There has been only one Barboza submission in his career, but he has won 14 times by TKO/KO.
Barboza is a 5’11” orthodox kickboxer with a reach of 75” at the age of 38. Since moving back down to featherweight, Barboza looks to be in the best shape of his life. Over his long UFC career, he averages 4.18 significant strikes landed per minute, but he absorbs more on average (4.34). He also has a solid 75% takedown defense.
Lerone Murphy:
Murphy is an undefeated British mixed martial artist with a 13-0-1 record in the sport and is making his 7th walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday, finally getting a matchup in the top 15. He has 7 TKO/KO wins out of his 14 total UFC fights.
Murphy is a 5’9” orthodox MMA fighter with a 73” reach at the age of 32. In the octagon, Murphy averages 3.65 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 2.40 per minute. He adds 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes to his offensive arsenal and has a mediocre 46% takedown defense.
Barboza vs Murphy Prediction
| UFC Fight Night AI Picks | |
| Over/Under | U 4.5 rounds (-150) |
| Moneyline | Edson Barboza (+118) |
When you are predicting a fight between two UFC fighters of this caliber, it gets very difficult. Anything can happen in the octagon and when there are two guys at this level of the sport, even more unpredictable things can happen.
After breaking down this fight from a stylistic standpoint and studying the tape, the official Barboza vs Murphy prediction is that Barboza will use his experience to control the pacing of Murphy’s first 5-round fight and then finish the job in the middle rounds.
The leg kicks and body kicks of Barboza are still elite with his power and speed, and Murphy doesn’t do his best work at kicking range. Murphy also gets scrappy at times, letting his hands go and using a lot of energy in bursts. This will cause him to at least have moments of slowing down after the second round.
Barboza is going to wear down the body and legs of Murphy with kicks and strong work in the clinch, leading to a TKO/KO in rounds 3 or 4. None of Murphy’s bouts have ended the 3rd round in an impressive fashion. He will need to completely change the style and pace of the way he fights this weekend, which can throw everything else off.
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