Yair Rodriguez vs Brian Ortega Odds, AI Picks, and AI Prediction
It’s finally time to start welcoming back UFC events in the great fighting country of Mexico this weekend with a stacked card full of the best Mexican talent that the company has to offer. The co-main event of this weekend’s card will be a featherweight rematch between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega.
This Rodriguez vs. Ortega bout will be running back their first meeting in 2022 which was cut short because of a brutal shoulder injury to Ortega in the first round. The pace was just picking up and the fans were robbed of a potential historic performance from both men.
Keep reading for the Rodriguez vs. Ortega prediction, along with an explanation about how these UFC AI picks are usually made and a deeper understanding of why this fight might play out the way we think it will.
Bout Information
| YAIR RODRIGUEZ vs BRIAN ORTEGA |
| Location of the Game: exico City Arena, Mexico City, Mexico |
| Date and Time: February 24, 2024 – 10 PM ET main card start |
| Reason: UFC featherweight 5-round co-main event bout |
| How to watch: ESPN+ |
AI Betting Picks
| ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
| OVER/UNDER | Over 2.5 rounds (-140) |
| MONEYLINE | Yair Rodriguez (-150) |
The Rodriguez vs Ortega prediction is in favor of Rodriguez for many reasons. He has been the more active fighter over the last few years, he will be fighting in his home country this weekend, and he has the speed advantage over Ortega.
Ortega has been out of the cage due to shoulder injuries, having multiple surgeries along the way. It’s not like he will all of a sudden be able to make leaps in his boxing ability or grappling ability when a lot of his time off has been filled with rehabilitating an injury.
The pressure and cardio of Ortega have caused some elite guys to show some weakness, giving him chances to win massive fights; but the good chin and pressure haven’t worked out for him against UFC fighters at this elite level.
You need to bring something else to the table when competing against elite mixed martial artists. If Rodriguez doesn’t make any costly mistakes, he should be able to outclass Ortega in almost every aspect of this fight. Ortega will keep this fight interesting throughout, but when will his chin betray him? Any punch could put him away with 4-ounce gloves, even if he’s been able to absorb tons of damage in the past.
Rodriguez vs Ortega Prediction Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
| YAIR RODRIGUEZ | -145 | O 2.5 |
| BRIAN ORTEGA | +115 | U 2.5 |
The most important part of winning bets isn’t about Rodriguez’s stats or Ortega’s results over the recent years; it’s what the betting lines read.
Rodriguez is coming into this fight week as the -145 betting favorite over the +115 Ortega making his first appearance since their first fight in 2022. The over/under is at 2.5 rounds. This fight favors to end inside the distance at -200 odds.
According to past UFC odds, Rodriguez was the +170 underdog when he beat Ortega (-185) in their first meeting back in 2022. The long layoff and Rodriguez going on to become interim champion are most likely the reasons that oddsmakers have changed their mind about this matchup.
Some key prop bets to look at for this bout are: Rodriguez winning inside the distance again at +150, and Ortega winning by submission at +300.
Betting Preview
Yair Rodriguez
Rodriguez is a Mexican professional MMA fighter who has a professional MMA record of 19-4 with 1 NC and 13 finishes (8 KO and 5 SUB). He is 31 years old and is the former UFC interim featherweight champion, collecting 9 post-fight bonuses along the journey. He is dangerous at literally any second of the fight, owning the latest knockout in UFC history at 4:59 of round 5 against The Korean Zombie.
Rodriguez is 5’11” and his reach is at 71”. He averages slightly more significant strikes landed per minute (4.63) than he does absorb per minute (4.07) with a 51% striking defense. He has a 28% takedown success rate while averaging 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, along with a 59% takedown defense.
Brian Ortega
Ortega is a 15-3 professional MMA fighter with 3 KO finishes and 7 submissions. At 32 years old, he is making his first UFC appearance since July 2022. He has earned 7 post-fight bonuses in the UFC on the way to challenging for the world title twice at featherweight–losing to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.
Ortega is at 5’8” fighter with a reach of 69”. He averages more significant strikes absorbed per minute (6.66) than he lands (4.19) and has only a 38% striking accuracy. His best work comes on the canvas–averaging 0.95 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 23% accuracy rate and a 56% takedown defense. He averages 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes.
Ready to take the Rodriguez vs Ortega Prediction Odds for your sports betting to the next level with AI? Follow us @SportBettingAI on X and keep reading for continuous AI-powered betting picks.
