UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev Prediction, Odds, and AI Picks
UFC 294 is set to take place from Abu Dhabi this weekend after a very eventful week of late-notice replacements. Arguably, the biggest surprise replacement of the card is former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman stepping up to replace Paulo Costa in the co-main event against Khamzat Chimaev. This makes the Usman vs Chimaev prediction a good one to analyze.
This will be Usman’s debut at middleweight, marking Chimaev’s run to the middleweight title after missing weight in his last welterweight bout. Usman vs Chimaev at 185lbs is one of the most intriguing matchups the UFC could have made all year.
Let’s take a closer look at this exciting title-eliminator bout and talk about the official Usman vs Chimaev prediction ahead of making your betting picks on this weekend’s card.
Usman vs Chimaev Prediction Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
| KAMARU USMAN | +240 | O 2.5 |
| KAHMZAT CHIMAEV | -330 | U 2.5 |
The Chimaev betting odds have him as a big -330 betting favorite over Usman. The Usman odds are saying he is a big-time underdog for the first time in his career, and he’s a whopping +625 to win inside the distance. Chimaev is -150 to do the same.
This fight is also favored to end inside the distance at -200 due to the finishing rate that Chimaev has. The under-2.5 round total bet is currently at -170 as well.
There are so many ways to bet on this fight, and no one knows what will happen when the octagon gates close–that’s why the UFC is the best sports league to watch and bet on.
Game Information
| KAMARU USMAN vs KAHMZAT CHIMAEV |
| Location of the Game: Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Date and Time: Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 2 PM ET main card start |
| Reason: Middleweight Division Bout |
| How to watch: ESPN+ PPV |
Betting Preview
Kamaru Usman
Usman is a 20-3 professional mixed martial artist from the United States with nine KOs and one submission in his MMA career. He is the former UFC welterweight champion, and he defended that title five times, making him have the third most title fight victories in UFC history with six.
His background in combat sports starts with wrestling, where he went on to become an NCAA D-II national champion and three-time All-American.
In the UFC, Usman averages an efficient 4.46 significant strikes landed and only 2.75 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He also has an average of 2.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and a ridiculously stingy 97% takedown defense. The 36-year-old is listed at 6’0” with a 76” reach.
Khamzat Chimaev
Chimaev is a Chechnya-born mixed martial artist with a professional record of 12-0 with six KOs and five submissions at the age of 29. He resided in Sweden for most of his life and won three national championships in freestyle wrestling as an amateur.
Standing at 6’2” with a 75” reach fighting out of the orthodox stance, “Borz” has been nothing short of dominant in the UFC. He averages 7.30 significant strikes landed and 3.98 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon.
When making your Usman vs Chimaev prediction, keep in mind that he also has a 100% takedown defense while averaging 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage.
AI Betting Picks
| ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
| OVER/UNDER | OVER 1.5 Rounds (-150) |
| MONEYLINE | Khamzat Chimaev (-325) |
This is a closer fight than the odds may suggest. Usman might be out of his athletic prime and struggling with knee issues, but he has had a nice long rest for both his body and his mind since his last title fight loss earlier this year.
Usman is going to be calm in the chaos early on and gain the respect of Chimaev rather quickly in the wrestling scrambles by being able to land his jab. Chimaev is just going to be too overpowering over 15 minutes for the 36-year-old to handle.
It’s too close of a fight to bet on a method of victory, but the over-1.5 round line is very doable and will be the best bet to make on Saturday for this matchup. The official Usman vs Chimaev prediction is that Chimaev will win via arm triangle in the second round.
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