UFC 301: Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg Odds, AI Picks, and Betting Prediction (May 4th)
There’s nothing quite like watching UFC events in Brazil. MMA fans are lucky enough to get that again this weekend for the first time since the global pandemic started in 2020. With a card full of great UFC fighters from Brazil and all around the world. Let’s focus on the main event.
Alexandre Pantoja’s UFC title is on the line against a surprising contender named Steve Erceg. The relatively unknown Australian will look to shock the MMA community and prove he’s the best flyweight in the world.
Keep reading for the official Pantoja vs. Erceg betting analysis and UFC AI picks going into this weekend. There will be insight on the betting lines and the stylistic matchup these two elite fighters will have in the octagon on Saturday night.
Bout Information
| ALEXANDRE PANTOJA vs STEVE ERCEG |
| Location of the Game: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| Date and Time: April 27, 2024 – 7 PM ET Main card starts |
| Reason: UFC 301 Flyweight Title Main Event |
| How to watch: ESPN+ PPV |
AI Betting Picks
| ODDS | AI BETTING PICKS |
| OVER/UNDER | Under 3.5 rounds (+125) |
| MONEYLINE | Alexandre Pantoja (-185) |
It was very tough not to lean towards the strange thing to happen, because that’s what this sport is all about. Everything you don’t expect to happen, happens.
With that being said, the official Pantoja vs. Erceg betting prediction is that Pantoja will get his hand raised inside of 3.5 rounds on Saturday night. He isn’t as sharp technically as Erceg, and Erceg has the skills to get the job done, but Pantoja has the heart and mindset of a champion already.
Erceg might freeze just enough in the bright lights and high pressure situation that will allow Pantoja to take advantage of the moment. Pantoja will force these wild scrambles on the ground and blitzing combinations on the feet, putting constant pressure on the Australian challenger.
The fight can end in any way imaginable, but it’s going to be smart to wager on it ending in the first half of the scheduled 25 minutes. There will be too many blitzes and running onto shots for it not to end early.
We are either going to see the birth of a great, fierce champion in Erceg, or we are going to see Pantoja prove he belongs as the best flyweight on the planet. This Pantoja vs. Erceg bout will be Fight of the Night.
Pantoja vs Erceg Betting Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | OVER/UNDER |
| ALEXANDRE PANTOJA | -185 | O 3.5 |
| STEVE ERCEG | +155 | U 3.5 |
According to the available UFC odds, Pantoja is going into this historic event as the -185 betting favorite. He has +155 odds to win inside the distance, +425 by TKO/KO and +265 by submission. There’s a ton of value there as this will be a fast-paced fight with a lot of opportunities for finishes.
Erceg is making his first UFC title walk on Saturday night as the +155 underdog. He is also +250 to win inside the distance, along with being +250 to win by TKO/KO and +1200 by submission. That’s an interesting line because Erceg has won half of his fights by submission up to this point.
Other Pantoja vs. Erceg betting lines to keep an eye on are the over/under of 3.5 rounds and this fight ending inside the distance at -155. The pace this fight will have seems to make it impossible for it to go 25 minutes, but flyweights tend to go the distance with the lack of one-punch KO power.
Betting Preview
Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 27-5, including 8 TKO/KO wins and 10 submissions. He is 34 years old now and has one UFC title defense under his belt. He has brought home five UFC post-fight bonuses in his career.
Pantoja is a 5’5” orthodox fighter with a 67” reach. He averages 4.32 significant strikes landed and 3.90 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. He adds 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes to his offensive arsenal, along with a 1.0 submission average per 15 minutes.
Steve Erceg
Erceg is an Australian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 12-1, including 2 TKO/KO victories and 6 submissions. He has had an odd run to the title, only being in the UFC for less than 11 months and getting three wins. Erceg earned two post-fight bonuses in those fights as well. Before signing with the UFC, he won the Eternal MMA flyweight championship in Australia.
Erceg is a 5’8” orthodox fighter with a 68” reach. In his first year inside the octagon, Erceg averages 4.57 significant strikes landed and 3.64 absorbed per minute. He also lands 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 77% takedown defense.
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